Is the crypto bull market over? This is Bitcoin on the weekly. Look at that weekly candle right now, that red weekly candle. Bitcoin is falling; it’s having trouble getting to a new all-time high. Crypto’s falling. Is it over? In this video, I’m going to answer exactly why it’s not over, and I’m going to do it very simply. So, please hit the subscribe button, hit the like button, and let’s jump into the video.
Bitcoin Daily Chart: Exiting the Bear Market
I actually want to go to this daily chart real quick. Here’s Bitcoin. This is not the first time the “bull market is over.” Bitcoin on the daily is exiting the bear market. That’s what that looks like, and this was a fun time—just Bitcoin exiting that bottom of the bear. We start zooming out, and here’s the path that it has been on. I can’t remember a specific narrative at the time, but I am sure right here, when Bitcoin started falling again—I mean, we were at like 48, almost 50, and then all of a sudden, before you know it, we’re at 38—I’m sure the run was over at that moment.
Bitcoin’s All-Time High and Halving Analysis
We go even further. I am sure here’s Bitcoin’s all-time high right before the halving. Here’s the halving on the daily chart. I’m sure the bull run was over right here. But wait, it’s not over. I’m sure it was over again right here, and then it was over again right here. Then we bounced, and now it’s over again. The recession is here; there’s so much talk of the recession. It’s 2008 all over again. I’m not going to sit here and say every data point—not just in crypto, but in traditional finance, with real estate, with all the macroeconomic things that go into this, all the ingredients—is so good. But I will sit here and say, and I’m going to show you right now, why the bull run is not over yet. You might not like my answer, but I want to go to the weekly chart to start discussing this.
Why the Crypto Bull Market Hasn’t Started Yet
- This is Bitcoin on the weekly.
- The first reason I want to tell you why this is not over is very simple, everybody.
- It’s because it hasn’t even started.
- That’s why it’s not over.
- The crypto bull market has not started, and that could be a good thing, depending on how you look at it.
- But the flip side of the perspective is it could be a bad thing, meaning this: if it hasn’t started yet and crypto doesn’t get this launchpad parabolic move to the upside, if it doesn’t happen, this will be like the first crypto cycle where it doesn’t happen.
- So my question for you is this: are you ready for that?
- I think so many people have been thinking we’re in this bull market, and I’ve been saying time and time again we’re getting very close, like to things like altcoin season, but historically we’re not there just yet.
- We’re at the very beginning.
The Notion of a Canceled Crypto Bull Run
I just posted this a little bit ago. I don’t buy into the notion that this crypto bull run has been canceled. I could be wrong, but I think people have simply expected too much too soon. Patience is being tested. Green candles on the macro are still a wait, I think. But let’s go; there’s kind of like a flip side answer to this as well. It’s not just that it hasn’t started yet; that’s why it’s not over. It hasn’t started yet; that’s one answer. But the flip side to it is also that we’re so on pace with previous cycles.
Comparing Current and Past Bitcoin Cycles
| Aspect | Details |
|---|---|
| Expectations | Putting aside expectations and where everybody thinks we should be |
| Current State | What crypto should be doing right now, what Bitcoin should be doing |
| Past Performance | Looking at what it has done in the past and whether we are still in a normal environment |
| Personal View | In my view, we are |
| Acknowledgment of Uncertainty | I could be wrong about this, right? |
| Personal Responsibility | That’s something that I take on myself, that risk of it |
| Concern | What if it is? |
| Bear Market Possibility | What if crypto enters this new bear market at this stage of the cycle, which has never happened before? |
| Unprecedented Situation | A bear market right now, right after the Bitcoin halving, has not happened |
| Preparedness | I’m prepared for that; I don’t want that at all |
Bitcoin’s Weekly and Daily Price Action
But look at this: here’s Bitcoin. Then we’re going to make our way to the daily chart. I want to discuss short-term price action. But here’s Bitcoin on the weekly. It’s a red candle, for sure. If you look at this price range-wise, that red candle is around 16%. You see that we’re down. If we look at this, though, from this yellow line, that’s the Bitcoin halving, like 105 days, as it’s saying. And if we go back to the last cycle, 105 days after the Bitcoin halving, look at this: here’s Bitcoin making a nice move to the upside. It’s nice. The question I have is, and maybe you were here, maybe you weren’t, but looking at the chart and what happened here was a move from swing high to swing low of 21%. This candle alone, that red candle you see right there, is around 17-18%.
Assessing the Bull Market Status: Past vs. Present
Was the bull market over at this exact time last cycle, post-Bitcoin halving, 105 days or so, 100 days? Was it over? Not only was it not over here, but it hadn’t even started. It was the pivot into the parabolic bull, but it hadn’t even started. So, we’re in a similar type of environment right now on this weekly chart. Everybody’s kind of just like, “Man, what’s going on? Is it over?” There’s a ton of fear headlines right now, and the same is true. And this is obviously—I’m looking at some Bitcoin charts—but this video is a crypto video. The Bitcoin charts are a zoomed-out roadmap to crypto. I’m going to look at the total crypto market cap chart, the Bitcoin dominance chart, and so on.